Thought leadership
Thought leadership
Global Threat Outlook 2026: Middle East and the Red Sea
The Middle East and Red Sea function as a zone of permanent insecurity where risk is imposed directly on movement, routing, and continuity. Trade persists, but under conditions shaped by non state coercion, insurance withdrawal, and real time security threat. This installment of Global Threat Outlook 2026 examines how maritime chokepoints, insurance markets, sanctions regimes, and fragmented enforcement interact to govern behavior across shipping, energy, and cross border operations. The focus is not on individual attacks or conflicts, but on how insecurity becomes a standing operating condition and how exposure is created, priced, and judged in practice.
Global Threat Outlook 2026: Latin America and the Caribbean
Latin America and the Caribbean operate as a pressure zone adjacent to U.S. and European enforcement power, where trade continues but exposure accumulates quietly. Rather than crisis or collapse, the defining condition is continuity under constraint. This installment of Global Threat Outlook 2026 examines how enforcement proximity, insurance behavior, ownership opacity, and networked intermediaries shape indirect risk across maritime, energy, commodities, and cross-border operations. The focus is not on individual events or jurisdictions, but on how exposure is produced, migrates, and is ultimately judged in practice.
Global Threat Outlook 2026: A New Operating Reality
Global risk conditions have shifted from episodic disruption to permanent friction.
Sanctions, security controls, and regulatory pressure are no longer temporary responses to crisis, but standing features of the operating environment. Global Threat Outlook 2026 introduces a framework for understanding this change in kind and why traditional compliance and risk models increasingly lag reality. Rather than offering prescriptions, the series examines how risk is produced, enforced, and experienced in practice across regions and sectors, with particular attention to maritime and cross-border operations. The purpose is recognition. To clarify how the baseline has changed, and what that means for governance, defensibility, and strategic decision making in 2026.