Global Threat Outlook 2026: Middle East and the Red Sea

The Middle East and Red Sea function as a zone of permanent insecurity where risk is imposed directly on movement, routing, and continuity. Trade persists, but under conditions shaped by non state coercion, insurance withdrawal, and real time security threat. This installment of Global Threat Outlook 2026 examines how maritime chokepoints, insurance markets, sanctions regimes, and fragmented enforcement interact to govern behavior across shipping, energy, and cross border operations. The focus is not on individual attacks or conflicts, but on how insecurity becomes a standing operating condition and how exposure is created, priced, and judged in practice.